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"I will be sitting in the same office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, noting that if our interview went well, he might welcome us into Downing Street for another chat next year.

For a PM, there's never truly time off for prime ministers. In the hour before the interview began, Sir Keir had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to understand exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his big ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our interview, which was far more extended than typical, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

But as the new year begins, the Prime Minister seems to have had a kind of a refresh. Maybe even just some a rest with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This appeared to have resulted in a more positive mood than at the difficult conclusion of 2025, a terrible political year for him.

Yet, are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they reckon his political fate are about to improve?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the prime minister is that numerous of his party members think he's ineffective at his job. Some of them would sooner gamble and oust him sooner rather than later.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea in the interview on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he insisted he'd be "judged at the next election", maintaining nobody would remove his term from him – even if the optimal path of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 may be for Labour to switch its leader.

"We are in the battle of our generation and I intend to lead us," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The challenge for the PM is that he will be judged long before then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to contend, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But although he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should a his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, should those elections prove very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the public was reasonably eager for things to improve. He tried to assure me, and the public, that this year would be distinct.

The economy would improve in the face of rising unemployment, he said, when policies the administration put in place during their initial rocky year began to bear fruit.

• He vowed to shut asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he did not put a specific date on that.
• He noted too, with the caveat that it was not a certainty, that a settlement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first time that Western allies were now considering how to integrate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His big point is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Political Challenges

The PM may have communicated with more energy than observed from him for a while – less tense, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of encountering calls from within his own party for a bolder strategy, with greater political vision, more dynamism, more speed and more urgency, his points were well-known ones.

Given that he is in this much political difficulty, should he consider a different script?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, has everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because governing is difficult, but because he and his team have erred, even in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The PM expressed regret that he regretted saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when comments he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer blamed "the system" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing evident political risks as the year progresses. His alliance with the US president entails a new jeopardy after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the idea he would be at ease with such action seems far-fetched.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "career-long champion of international law" but the public "just do not have the entire story at the moment".

Some wanted him to denounce it before we spoke. And the government is expected to face increased demands to give an definitive view in Parliament in the near future.

And there has long been simmering desire in the Labour party to revisit some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's heading in that direction, but his new firmer commitment to align more closely with the EU's single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will likely elicit protests that he is breaking his promise never to try to reverse the decisions that flowed from Brexit.

A decision to integrate into more of the single market will delight many on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to