A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
