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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However this year's field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent strugglers rising together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still